Applying XGBoost and SHAP to Open Source Data to Identify Key Drivers and Predict Likelihood of Wolf Pair Presence.

Wolves have returned to Germany since 2000. Numbers have grown to 209 territorial pairs in 2021. XGBoost machine learning, combined with SHAP analysis is applied to predict German wolf pair presence in 2022 for 10 × 10 km grid cells. Model input consisted of 38 variables from open sources, covering the period 2000 to 2021. The XGBoost model predicted well, with 0.91 as the AUC. SHAP analysis ranked the variables: distance to the closest neighboring wolf pair was the main driver for a grid cell to become occupied by a wolf pair. The clustering tendency of related wolves seems to be an important explanatory factor here. Second was the percentage of wooded area. The next eight variables related to wolf presence in the preceding year, except at fifth, eighth and tenth position in the total order: human density (square root) in the grid, percentage arable land and road density respectively. Other variables including the occurrence of wild prey were the weakest predictors. The SHAP analysis also provided crucial added value in identifying a variable that had threshold values where its contribution to the prediction changed from positive to negative or vice versa. For instance, low density of people increased the probability of wolf pair presence, whereas a high density decreased this probability. Cumulative lift techniques showed that the model performed almost four times better than random prediction. The combination of XGBoost, SHAP and cumulative lift techniques is new in wolf management and conservation, allowing for the focusing of educational and financial resources.

Conflicts with Wolves Can Originate from Their Parent Packs.

Transmission of experience about prey and habitat supports the survival of next generation of wolves. Thus, the parent pack (PP) can affect whether young migrating wolves (loners) kill farm animals or choose to be in human environments, which generates human-wolf conflicts. Therefore, we researched whether the behavior of loners resembles PP behavior. After being extinct, 22 loners had entered the Netherlands between 2015 and 2019. Among them, 14 could be DNA-identified and linked with their PPs in Germany. Some loners were siblings. We assessed the behavior of each individual and PP through a structured Google search. PP behavior was determined for the loner's rearing period. Similarity between loner and PP behavior was significant (p = 0.022) and applied to 10 of 14 cases: like their PPs, three loners killed sheep and were near humans, five killed sheep and did not approach humans, while two loners were unproblematic, they did not kill sheep, nor were they near humans. Siblings behaved similarly. Thus, sheep killing and proximity to humans may develop during early-life experiences in the PP. However, by negative reinforcement that can be prevented. New methods are suggested to achieve that. As a result, new generations may not be problematic when leaving PPs.